Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262022 220519 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20    168.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  29.1  32.2  36.7  40.6  53.2  63.6  85.2  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  22.0  20.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 115.7 111.5 107.4 101.6  98.0  81.5  66.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  79.0  60.0  53.0  33.0  36.0  18.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  64.0  66.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0 -10.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0 -16.0 -15.0  F  F  F  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.3%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%