Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262022 220520 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.30    167.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  34.4  38.5  41.3  53.4  57.6  79.0 101.9  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.4 107.4 103.5 101.6  98.0  87.7  71.7  54.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  61.0  60.0  48.0  61.0  34.0  40.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  62.0  70.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 -10.0 -12.0  -3.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons