Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262022 220520 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.60    167.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  37.6  38.5  44.4  53.0  63.8  87.1 116.2  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.5 103.5 101.6  99.8  94.4  86.1  65.5  48.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  53.0  42.0  35.0  39.0  15.0  58.0  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  52.0  51.0  53.0  57.0  63.0  66.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -7.0  -2.0  -4.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons