Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262022 220521 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.90    169.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.5  48.5  51.8  57.6  73.5  79.7  91.3  99.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.0  89.3  86.1  83.0  63.2  55.7  47.4  37.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  33.0  15.0  19.0  43.0  72.0  66.0  47.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  69.0  68.0  61.0  57.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0  -4.0  -9.0 -13.0 -14.0 -17.0 -59.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons