Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012022 220331 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  14.2  18.2  16.7  22.3  19.6  25.8  25.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0 117.4 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  40.0  45.0  44.0  61.0  69.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  72.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   8.0  10.0  19.0  12.0   9.0   9.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.5%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       19.7%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.0%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        7.5%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        5.8%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%       11.4%        7.3%