Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012022 220331 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  19.1  17.7  23.3  25.0  22.4  27.0  23.9  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  90.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  F  U
 Potential [kt]         65.9  77.0  82.9  84.2  86.7  85.4 145.0 111.2  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  54.0  45.0  72.0  60.0  43.0  33.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  72.0  75.0  76.0  72.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  10.0  10.0  21.0   8.0  -3.0  -6.0  -1.0  U  U  U VU  U  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        0.9%        1.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons