Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220407 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      3.60    148.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  23.0  27.3  29.5  26.7  30.6  34.0  34.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  156.0 162.0 154.0 142.0 109.0 100.0  90.0  93.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 137.0 134.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  58.0  80.0 124.0 114.0 154.0 127.0 175.0  N  N  N  F  F VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  86.0  85.0  85.0  89.0  92.0  91.0  89.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0 -11.0  -8.0 -16.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        5.4%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h       27.1%       41.9%       34.5%
 30kt / 24h       13.0%       19.4%       16.2%
 35kt / 24h        6.5%       15.5%       11.0%
 40kt / 24h        6.5%       15.5%       11.0%
 45kt / 36h       31.2%       57.8%       44.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       28.4%       14.2%
 55kt / 48h       51.3%       35.6%       43.4%
 70kt / 48h       30.3%       35.2%       32.8%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       68.7%       65.3%