Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220407 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      4.00    147.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  23.0  30.2  35.7  42.3  38.0  39.6  37.8  F  N  N  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  159.0 149.0 146.0 135.0 129.0 108.0  88.0  91.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0 115.0 132.0 130.0 133.0 111.0 111.0 103.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  80.0  82.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        5.9%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       36.6%       43.5%       40.0%
 30kt / 24h       14.9%       20.0%       17.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%       16.4%       10.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.2%       16.4%       10.8%
 45kt / 36h       24.9%       44.0%       34.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       17.2%        8.6%
 55kt / 48h       49.0%       21.7%       35.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.9%       18.3%       21.6%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       43.2%       52.6%