Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220408 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      5.70    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  29.8  33.3  36.9  32.5  35.1  47.1  52.9  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  114.0 104.0 103.0  94.0  81.0  89.0  95.0 101.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0 112.0 109.0 108.0  77.0 123.0 104.0  86.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  86.0  86.0  85.0  85.0  83.0  84.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0  19.0  53.0  59.0  60.0  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.3%       10.1%       10.7%
 25kt / 24h       48.0%       47.5%       47.8%
 30kt / 24h       23.6%       26.4%       25.0%
 35kt / 24h       10.3%       26.0%       18.2%
 40kt / 24h        9.0%       25.3%       17.1%
 45kt / 36h       21.8%       37.5%       29.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.1%        7.5%
 55kt / 48h       24.3%       19.9%       22.1%
 70kt / 48h       17.0%        8.9%       13.0%
 65kt / 72h       33.5%        7.5%       20.5%