Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220408 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.20    145.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  33.1  32.9  33.9  30.1  46.4  56.8  56.4  N  U  U  U  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  121.0 117.0 107.0  92.0  92.0 140.0  85.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 117.0 119.3 119.3 112.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0 103.0  84.0  81.0 120.0 132.0 142.0 107.0  F  F  N  N  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   88.0  86.0  91.0  89.0  91.0  91.0  86.0  77.0 VF  F VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  21.0  25.0  18.0  22.0  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.1%        3.6%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       20.7%       23.7%       22.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.1%        9.4%       10.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%        8.5%        7.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.7%        8.5%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h       18.0%       17.8%       17.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.5%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h       25.6%        9.0%       17.3%
 70kt / 48h       15.0%        3.1%        9.1%
 65kt / 72h       29.5%        4.2%       16.9%