Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220409 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.70    143.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  23.9  23.7  24.9  28.9  27.7  27.6  34.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  90.0  85.0  89.0  91.0  94.0  88.0  78.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 114.6 114.6 107.9 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0 126.0 139.0 142.0 148.0 138.0 100.0 108.0  N  F VF VF VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  86.0  86.0  88.0  85.0  84.0  81.0  77.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   4.0   7.0   8.0  24.0  18.0 -14.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.8%        6.7%        7.3%
 25kt / 24h       37.9%       45.1%       41.5%
 30kt / 24h       18.7%       25.0%       21.8%
 35kt / 24h       12.5%       24.2%       18.4%
 40kt / 24h       12.5%       24.2%       18.4%
 45kt / 36h       33.4%       40.1%       36.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.3%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h       47.1%       26.7%       36.9%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       12.9%       18.9%
 65kt / 72h       60.2%       24.0%       42.1%