Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220409 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.40    143.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  29.5  29.2  25.0  24.6  14.6  21.4  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  86.0  86.0  89.0  93.0  93.0  81.0  70.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 119.3 117.0 114.6 110.1 105.7 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   117.0 111.0 142.0 123.0 148.0  95.0  71.0  80.0  F  F VF  F VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  85.0  86.0  83.0  85.0  79.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0   2.0  -2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.4%        4.2%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h       31.6%       35.6%       33.6%
 30kt / 24h       14.2%       17.5%       15.9%
 35kt / 24h        6.0%       16.6%       11.3%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%       16.6%       11.3%
 45kt / 36h       27.7%       34.7%       31.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.1%        6.5%
 55kt / 48h       46.7%       28.5%       37.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       17.1%       20.9%
 65kt / 72h       58.8%       33.5%       46.1%