Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220409 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.70    142.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  23.0  22.3  23.1  22.6  14.0  17.8  36.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  89.0  90.0  91.0  96.0  88.0  76.0  57.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        109.3 109.3 107.0 104.6 104.6  97.9  95.7  87.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0 121.0 113.0 126.0 142.0 111.0  67.0  80.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  82.0  84.0  83.0  83.0  85.0  83.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.6%       17.0%       19.8%
 25kt / 24h       64.9%       66.9%       65.9%
 30kt / 24h       42.0%       54.6%       48.3%
 35kt / 24h       26.9%       54.6%       40.8%
 40kt / 24h       25.2%       52.3%       38.7%
 45kt / 36h       48.6%       60.4%       54.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       37.1%       18.5%
 55kt / 48h       51.2%       46.4%       48.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       33.1%       29.0%
 65kt / 72h       51.5%       42.0%       46.8%