Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220410 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    140.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     92.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  17.5  20.5  19.5  23.7  18.6  16.4  34.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  91.0  93.0  96.0  87.0  71.0  52.0  39.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        107.0 104.6 104.6 104.6  95.7  91.5  93.6  83.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0 144.0 161.0 145.0 133.0 111.0  42.0  75.0  F VF VF VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  77.0  73.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -10.0  -7.0  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0   1.0  10.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       36.1%       32.0%       34.0%
 25kt / 24h       80.3%       81.9%       81.1%
 30kt / 24h       60.2%       76.6%       68.4%
 35kt / 24h       47.1%       76.6%       61.9%
 40kt / 24h       33.4%       73.9%       53.6%
 45kt / 36h       61.4%       75.1%       68.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       57.9%       28.9%
 55kt / 48h       51.7%       54.3%       53.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.9%       48.5%       36.7%
 65kt / 72h       53.5%       43.8%       48.6%