Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220410 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    136.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  23.4  22.7  20.8  24.5  33.5  35.9  39.4  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0 101.0 100.0  98.0  79.0  54.0  25.0  13.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 109.3 107.0 100.1  89.4  79.8  74.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0 126.0 112.0 113.0 100.0  31.0  67.0  31.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  79.0  80.0  80.0  75.0  68.0  63.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  25.0  24.0  29.0  25.0  33.0  27.0  44.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.2%       13.6%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       57.3%       63.0%       60.2%
 30kt / 24h       30.6%       51.0%       40.8%
 35kt / 24h       19.9%       51.0%       35.4%
 40kt / 24h        8.6%       48.1%       28.4%
 45kt / 36h       37.1%       45.0%       41.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.7%       11.3%
 55kt / 48h       39.1%       24.9%       32.0%
 70kt / 48h       21.2%        7.0%       14.1%
 65kt / 72h       20.5%        3.5%       12.0%