Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220411 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    136.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  14.9  16.7  18.4  26.6  23.5  22.5  35.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  93.0  79.0  71.0  54.0  35.0  15.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.3  92.9  88.6  88.6  88.6  84.4  76.6  56.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   114.0 119.0 129.0 127.0  99.0  90.0 110.0  95.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  76.0  77.0  71.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   4.0  14.0  21.0  20.0  33.0  31.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.5%       22.4%       22.4%
 25kt / 24h       61.7%       63.0%       62.4%
 30kt / 24h       41.5%       51.1%       46.3%
 35kt / 24h       26.7%       51.1%       38.9%
 40kt / 24h       17.4%       50.3%       33.9%
 45kt / 36h       41.4%       43.5%       42.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.8%       11.4%
 55kt / 48h       40.9%       21.1%       31.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%        9.8%       17.3%
 65kt / 72h       27.7%        5.6%       16.7%