Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220411 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    135.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  16.3  18.9  19.9  23.4  38.7  42.8  53.4  F  F  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  87.0  82.0  74.0  49.0  25.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.1  85.7  83.6  83.6  79.4  68.0  57.7  54.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0  73.0  85.0  55.0  62.0  38.0  63.0  41.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  80.0  81.0  78.0  80.0  84.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -8.0  -5.0  -8.0  -5.0  -7.0   9.0  44.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.9%       18.1%       21.0%
 25kt / 24h       47.5%       48.9%       48.2%
 30kt / 24h       33.8%       37.3%       35.5%
 35kt / 24h       23.1%       37.3%       30.2%
 40kt / 24h       15.4%       37.0%       26.2%
 45kt / 36h       32.0%       27.7%       29.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.5%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h       15.4%        6.1%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%