Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220412 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    135.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  15.1  24.8  23.9  24.0  22.9  38.4  56.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  74.0  62.0  56.0  30.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.6  78.6  78.6  74.4  63.0  51.1  46.5  10.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0 114.0 114.0  96.0  62.0  56.0  41.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  74.0  73.0  68.0  71.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  14.0  12.0  18.0  13.0  15.0 -18.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       37.1%       29.0%       33.1%
 25kt / 24h       58.1%       56.6%       57.4%
 30kt / 24h       39.2%       50.4%       44.8%
 35kt / 24h       28.4%       50.4%       39.4%
 40kt / 24h       21.9%       47.5%       34.7%
 45kt / 36h       29.5%       29.0%       29.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.1%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h       17.4%        7.0%       12.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%