Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220412 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    135.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  22.1  25.6  30.5  26.1  36.5  55.7  75.8  F  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  71.0  54.0  46.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.6  65.7  63.6  59.4  41.0  31.5  19.2 -14.2  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0  91.0  76.0  52.0  61.0  49.0  80.0 129.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  72.0  71.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  13.0  17.0  24.0  14.0  14.0  24.0  37.0  N  U  U VU  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       71.8%       38.4%       55.1%
 25kt / 24h       61.6%       51.5%       56.5%
 30kt / 24h       51.7%       45.6%       48.6%
 35kt / 24h       51.0%       45.6%       48.3%
 40kt / 24h       35.3%       43.1%       39.2%
 45kt / 36h       39.5%       26.5%       33.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%