Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220412 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    135.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  30.1  36.1  35.6  31.8  46.7  64.5  77.5  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  62.0  48.0  41.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.6  55.7  51.5  43.5  27.7  20.0 -16.6 -34.5  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  95.0  73.0  26.0  55.0  71.0 141.0 129.0  F  F  N  U  N  N VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  70.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  74.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  18.0  26.0  32.0  23.0  40.0  68.0  65.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.9%       19.3%       40.6%
 25kt / 24h       28.7%       18.2%       23.5%
 30kt / 24h       21.8%       11.4%       16.6%
 35kt / 24h       20.0%       11.4%       15.7%
 40kt / 24h       14.0%       10.8%       12.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%