Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220413 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    136.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  27.5  24.8  20.6  29.5  34.3  54.5  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  44.0  25.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.5  39.8  34.4  29.3  14.4  -2.3 -30.4 -41.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  35.0  45.0  69.0  85.0 131.0 163.0 195.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  69.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  74.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  18.0  15.0  15.0  34.0  86.0  89.0  81.0  U VU  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        2.3%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%        3.4%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        1.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons