Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220413 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  36.5  45.2  59.0  65.6  68.0  70.5  90.6  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          4.6  -1.4  -1.4  -7.0 -40.9 -55.8 -63.9 -74.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  62.0  72.0  99.0 121.0 126.0 173.0 159.0  F  N  N  F  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  70.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0  36.0  55.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  44.0 -45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons