Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220414 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    138.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.2  39.3  47.6  45.6  59.6  62.2  90.9  90.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          8.6   8.6  -6.8 -28.1 -44.9 -52.7 -63.2 -63.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  75.0 111.0 132.0 153.0 141.0 151.0 151.0  N  N  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  74.0  70.0  64.0  60.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  40.0  43.0  76.0  99.0  93.0 124.0 204.0 204.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons