Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220414 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.4  50.2  46.1  51.5  60.6  66.8 108.2 136.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         15.0   5.4 -19.2 -26.6 -41.1 -49.2 -59.9 -60.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  56.0 109.0 116.0 123.0 159.0 142.0  75.0  N  N  F  F  F VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  60.0  49.0  52.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  93.0 112.0 128.0 121.0 193.0 412.0 327.0 -33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons