Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022022 220415 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    140.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.7  57.3  56.4  56.1  78.8 134.3 121.4 105.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          1.7  -2.8  -6.1  -8.4 -23.8 -25.8 -25.8 -25.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   121.0  96.0 120.0 169.0 177.0  77.0  77.0  24.0  F  F  F VF VF  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  53.0  48.0  43.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  89.0  66.0  98.0 221.0 391.0  56.0  62.0  66.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons