Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220409 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  23.9  26.5  27.8  33.3  42.8  43.9  55.3  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  80.0  80.0  81.0  89.0  79.0  96.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 134.6 115.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  42.0  73.0  61.0 103.0  33.0  87.0 126.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  79.0  82.0  86.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0 -13.0 -54.0 179.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       15.0%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        5.2%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.2%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        4.2%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%       19.1%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.3%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h       11.8%        7.2%        9.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.1%        4.3%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h       30.1%        9.3%       19.7%