Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220409 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  24.5  28.6  29.4  36.6  38.6  43.2  52.5  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  32.0  30.0  19.0  19.0  54.0  81.0  68.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        116.5 104.8 101.2  97.7  97.7 116.5 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  90.0  89.0 111.0  89.0  31.0  24.0  22.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  74.0  78.0  80.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0 -14.0 -16.0 -23.0 -65.0  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%        8.6%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       11.8%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        1.8%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        2.3%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        5.6%        3.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons