Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220410 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  32.0  32.7  35.5  40.1  39.4  38.5  51.1  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  36.0  31.0  28.0  31.0  82.0  75.0  82.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        104.4  98.5  91.2  87.7  91.2 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  78.0  92.0 106.0  61.0  13.0  52.0  81.0  N  N  F  F  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  80.0  78.0  75.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -9.0 -16.0 -26.0 -47.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        2.7%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%        8.8%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        3.1%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.8%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        2.7%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        9.5%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.9%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        4.9%        3.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons