Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220410 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  31.9  32.5  35.3  35.5  37.1  37.2  51.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0   9.0  11.0  18.0  18.0  24.0  86.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         94.4  84.6  87.7  96.2  96.2  99.8 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0 113.0  99.0  83.0  43.0  41.0  40.0  33.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0 -10.0 -13.0 -31.0 -58.0  N  N  N  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons