Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220410 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  31.1  35.1  37.8  36.6  32.8  40.6  50.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  12.0  15.0  18.0  15.0  32.0  80.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         86.1  89.3  92.7  96.2  92.7  98.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  90.0  88.0  56.0  15.0   7.0 -12.0  46.0  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  78.0  76.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0  -8.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons