Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220411 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  37.2  34.1  34.8  37.1  45.8  50.1  39.5  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  18.0   8.0  15.0  92.0  84.0  97.0  90.0  U  U  U  U  F  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        102.7 106.2  93.0  96.1 140.0 140.0 139.3 127.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  78.0  59.0  51.0  19.0 -25.0  77.0  93.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  69.0  66.0  73.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   5.0  10.0   7.0   2.0 -13.0   7.0  N  N  N  U  N  N VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        0.8%        1.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons