Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220411 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    124.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  25.9  27.4  31.6  27.1  46.0  39.3  24.5  U  N  N  U  N VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  24.0  20.0  16.0  34.0  87.0 101.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        106.2 115.5 108.0 104.4 111.6 140.0 140.0 117.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0  91.0  81.0  92.0 111.0 116.0 104.0 110.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  66.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  17.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.3%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h       17.5%        2.0%        9.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons