Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220411 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  29.6  30.8  29.9  38.8  45.2  45.7  36.4  N  N  U  N  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   0.0  13.0  31.0  85.0  81.0  92.0  89.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]         98.0  95.0  98.0 111.2 145.0 145.0 144.3 128.6  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  48.0  46.0  27.0  16.0  90.0  52.0  48.0  N  N  N  U  U  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  74.0  76.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -8.0  -8.0 -15.0 -25.0 -33.0 -17.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        2.4%        2.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons