Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220411 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    124.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  30.3  31.0  36.2  45.8  45.3  44.6  37.2  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  35.0  78.0  89.0  74.0  89.0  90.0  56.0  U  U  N  F  N  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        107.7 118.5 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 132.9 118.5  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  80.0  42.0  -2.0  45.0  73.0  -4.0  73.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  76.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0  -8.0 -13.0 -21.0 -23.0 -35.0 -13.0  N  F  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.4%        4.8%        4.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons