Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220412 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  31.4  32.2  35.4  36.2  37.1  35.8  35.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  59.0  94.0  90.0  84.0  93.0  90.0  61.0  U  N  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        115.5 132.3 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 125.7 117.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  54.0   8.0  11.0  97.0  47.0  32.0  38.0  N  N  U  U  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0  -7.0  -5.0  -8.0   2.0  42.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.5%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       10.6%        5.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        2.8%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        2.8%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h       17.5%        7.4%       12.4%