Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220412 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    125.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  27.9  31.6  33.5  31.9  28.6  23.6  23.6  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  80.0  89.0  86.0  90.0 100.0  88.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  U
 Potential [kt]        128.6 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 139.6 130.7 130.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  76.0  79.0  86.0 133.0 147.0 108.0 108.0  N  N  N  F VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  68.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  57.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   9.0  17.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.0%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       10.8%        6.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%        5.4%       11.7%
 70kt / 48h       18.0%        4.4%       11.2%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       20.5%       41.2%