Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220412 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.4  33.2  37.5  34.7  35.1  39.0  37.9  37.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  95.0  80.0  84.0  98.0  74.0  29.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 139.6 122.4 111.2 111.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  33.0  63.0  62.0  48.0  16.0  24.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  70.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -9.0  -5.0  -1.0 -31.0 -16.0 -16.0  F  F  F  F  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        5.6%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        1.3%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        1.3%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%        3.5%        4.6%