Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220412 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  37.2  36.2  34.7  34.0  29.2  33.5  33.5  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  84.0  81.0  77.0  92.0  88.0  70.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 142.0 128.6 122.4 122.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  51.0 103.0  82.0  50.0  17.0  23.0  23.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0  -8.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        7.5%        4.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        2.6%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.9%        2.1%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h       20.7%        6.4%       13.5%