Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220413 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    126.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.6  39.8  39.7  38.5  35.2  33.3  33.3  33.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  77.0  82.0  96.0  92.0  57.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 142.0 130.7 118.5 118.5 118.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  64.0  73.0  72.0  32.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0  16.0  15.0  17.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.1%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        7.1%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        1.7%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        1.2%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        7.1%        2.6%        4.8%