Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032022 220413 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.4  40.6  36.9  38.2  36.8  36.8  36.8  36.8 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  68.0  75.0  81.0  89.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 149.3 144.6 144.6 144.6 144.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  80.0  86.0  63.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   6.0   4.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.6%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        7.5%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.9%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        4.3%        4.4%        4.4%