Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042022 220629 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  30.4  30.5  33.4  35.0  36.5  30.5  27.4  U  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  75.0  70.0  66.0  54.0  45.0  31.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  70.0  77.0  70.0 107.0  85.0  78.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  88.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  F VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   7.0  11.0   8.0  10.0 -20.0 -18.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        3.3%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       14.5%       27.0%       20.8%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%       11.1%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%        9.9%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        9.9%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        8.3%       32.2%       20.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.9%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h       11.3%       11.9%       11.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        7.8%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h        9.3%       21.7%       15.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.40

 WP042022 220629 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  30.4  30.5  33.4  35.0  36.5  30.5  27.4  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  88.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   7.0  11.0   8.0  10.0 -20.0 -18.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%