Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042022 220630 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 115.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.60 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.8 27.7 32.8 34.6 27.6 26.9 16.6 14.7 N N U U N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 76.0 72.0 67.0 67.0 52.0 43.0 27.0 0.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 82.0 83.0 94.0 106.0 105.0 93.0 55.0 75.0 N N F F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 81.0 82.0 83.0 82.0 82.0 80.0 82.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -4.0 -2.0 -15.0 N N N N N F N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.9% 5.2% 5.6% 25kt / 24h 20.8% 31.6% 26.2% 30kt / 24h 10.1% 13.3% 11.7% 35kt / 24h 6.0% 12.8% 9.4% 40kt / 24h 1.7% 12.8% 7.2% 45kt / 36h 14.7% 36.0% 25.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 13.6% 6.8% 55kt / 48h 17.5% 15.9% 16.7% 70kt / 48h 8.0% 11.8% 9.9% 65kt / 72h 22.2% 34.4% 28.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.40 WP042022 220630 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 115.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.8 27.7 32.8 34.6 27.6 26.9 16.6 14.7 N N F F N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 81.0 82.0 83.0 82.0 82.0 80.0 82.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -4.0 -2.0 -15.0 N N N N N U N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%