Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042022 220701 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    145.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  18.0  21.2  24.4  19.2  15.5  14.2  12.8  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  41.0  31.0  21.0  11.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 100.7  83.0  74.3  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   117.0 104.0 126.0 142.0  76.0  66.0  66.0  62.0  F  F  F VF  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  75.0  79.0  74.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.5%       25.5%       23.0%
 25kt / 24h       61.6%       73.5%       67.6%
 30kt / 24h       36.1%       66.1%       51.1%
 35kt / 24h       34.3%       66.1%       50.2%
 40kt / 24h       12.7%       63.6%       38.2%
 45kt / 36h       37.0%       64.7%       50.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       45.1%       22.6%
 55kt / 48h       32.1%       34.4%       33.2%
 70kt / 48h        9.9%       27.3%       18.6%
 65kt / 72h        8.9%       23.6%       16.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP042022 220701 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    145.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  18.0  21.2  24.4  19.2  15.5  14.2  12.8  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  75.0  79.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%