Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042022 220702 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.60 111.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 56.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 15.1 15.5 15.6 11.8 12.6 12.2 16.3 N F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 14.0 11.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.6 75.7 69.4 73.6 71.5 67.4 52.7 56.2 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 94.0 95.0 34.0 21.0 6.0 21.0 20.0 34.0 F F N U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 78.0 79.0 81.0 77.0 77.0 71.0 72.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 -2.0 -8.0 4.0 9.0 9.0 20.0 N N N F N U U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 65.0% 38.9% 52.0% 25kt / 24h 62.0% 66.5% 64.3% 30kt / 24h 62.0% 66.5% 64.3% 35kt / 24h 62.0% 66.5% 64.3% 40kt / 24h 37.3% 64.7% 51.0% 45kt / 36h 37.4% 45.8% 41.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 31.0% 15.5% 55kt / 48h 13.3% 19.8% 16.6% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.00 WP042022 220702 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.60 111.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 15.1 15.5 15.6 11.8 12.6 12.2 16.3 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 78.0 79.0 81.0 77.0 77.0 71.0 72.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 -2.0 -8.0 4.0 9.0 9.0 20.0 N N N U N F F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%