Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042022 220702 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 111.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 70.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 14.8 17.1 15.2 14.5 15.2 19.3 22.1 F F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.6 36.7 35.4 32.9 30.5 29.3 22.7 20.7 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 93.0 36.0 10.0 15.0 -25.0 30.0 15.0 30.0 F N U U VU N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 83.0 85.0 84.0 81.0 79.0 77.0 78.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -10.0 -16.0 -9.0 -2.0 -4.0 0.0 -11.0 F F VF F N F N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 8.5% 3.8% 6.2% 25kt / 24h 3.3% 5.4% 4.4% 30kt / 24h 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 35kt / 24h 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.74 WP042022 220702 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 111.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.