Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042022 220702 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  14.1  11.2  12.1  18.4  15.9  19.6  14.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.7  63.0  63.0  61.7  56.7  67.2  91.6 119.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  10.0  -4.0 -16.0  15.0  11.0  35.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  78.0  79.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -3.0   2.0   2.0   4.0  -3.0  -9.0  -9.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.22

 WP042022 220702 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.