Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042022 220703 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  12.1  10.5  17.0  11.5  15.5  17.4  17.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.4  65.4  62.9  60.5  69.4 104.4 115.1 102.4  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  -2.0 -21.0   2.0  43.0  31.0  35.0  25.0  N  U VU  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  77.0  78.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0  -1.0   3.0   4.0  -5.0  -8.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.98

 WP042022 220703 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.