Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220630 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    130.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  26.1  25.2  33.6  30.7  39.4  30.9  35.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  64.0  50.0  42.0  45.0  45.0  19.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 119.4 108.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  61.0  95.0  81.0  86.0  23.0  54.0  22.0  N  N  F  N  F  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  82.0  81.0  80.0  75.0  73.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  10.0  16.0  15.0  27.0   7.0   3.0   9.0  N  U  U  U VU  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.3%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       20.9%       14.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        7.6%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        6.5%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        6.5%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.9%       24.9%       14.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.7%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%        8.7%        8.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        4.3%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%        6.7%        5.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 WP052022 220630 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    130.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  26.1  25.2  33.6  30.7  39.4  30.9  35.4  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  82.0  81.0  80.0  75.0  73.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  10.0  16.0  15.0  27.0   7.0   3.0   9.0  N  F  F  F VF  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%