Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220630 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    130.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  18.9  23.1  14.8  15.2  23.9  29.6  29.3  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  70.0  35.0  28.0  23.0  18.0  21.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 122.9  96.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  95.0  48.0  65.0  66.0  59.0 100.0  66.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   9.0  14.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.7%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h       11.0%       27.4%       19.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%       11.5%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       10.7%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%       10.7%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h       15.1%       42.2%       28.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.8%        9.4%
 55kt / 48h       23.1%       23.0%       23.1%
 70kt / 48h        9.7%       15.9%       12.8%
 65kt / 72h       16.5%       17.4%       16.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP052022 220630 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    130.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  18.9  23.1  14.8  15.2  23.9  29.6  29.3  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   9.0  14.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%