Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052022 220701 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.6 31.6 26.5 29.7 39.0 38.5 42.5 54.4 N U N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 32.0 26.0 29.0 33.0 39.0 39.0 25.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 122.0 117.3 122.0 125.0 117.3 91.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 88.0 45.0 68.0 72.0 53.0 50.0 10.0 48.0 F N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 80.0 81.0 79.0 77.0 76.0 71.0 61.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 24.0 34.0 26.0 23.0 33.0 20.0 55.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.5% 3.1% 3.8% 25kt / 24h 11.8% 20.9% 16.3% 30kt / 24h 5.9% 8.4% 7.1% 35kt / 24h 4.7% 8.4% 6.5% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 8.4% 4.6% 45kt / 36h 4.5% 14.1% 9.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 55kt / 48h 2.5% 4.3% 3.4% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.66 WP052022 220701 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.6 31.6 26.5 29.7 39.0 38.5 42.5 54.4 N N N N F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 80.0 81.0 79.0 77.0 76.0 71.0 61.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 24.0 34.0 26.0 23.0 33.0 20.0 55.0 41.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 4.9% 0.0% 2.5%